THE COLD WAR HAS JUST TURNED INTO A HOT WAR
Written by News Team
Kuyuk Times
July 2022
There is a great feeling that the relative peace Europe have been enjoying- in this era have been shattered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine- the fact that such a thing could happen in the twenty-first century baffles a lot of people, Putin’s action is nothing- if not repulsive and appalling. Let’s call a spade a spade: his plot is not the pogrom of his enemies in Ukraine or their leaders but rather the whole of the Ukrainian population- only an insane leader would think he could invade a country and ransack it- in hope of subduing it with terror, without murdering the vulnerable and innocent kids in that country. If a narcissist is in power for so long he may begin to think he could get away with any heinous crime he commits since Putin ascend to power he have subjugating most of his neighbors so that they could do most of his bidding for him as they are doing right now in Ukraine.
What was on the mind of most people that are aware of the invasion was- will this be the stroke that breaks the camel’s back, and starts the third world war. Since we have dodged a bullet we can all exhale in relief, but could we really exhale in relief- when innocent lives are lost every day on both sides of the countries fighting this war: war has to stop if not we will all succumb to it. There is a saying that, “those that live by the sword die by the sword” if the earth citizens continue live by war then we are all bound to die by war. There is no better time to reflect on war and how to stop it, than right now that the Russia- Ukraine war is happening. The world is fortunate that the actions of those in charge in the Kremlin did not plunge us all into the third World War, but rather a war of proxy between the west and Russia: the cold war has just got turned into a hot war because of their.
War is like the Hydra- the ancient Greek mythical monster if you cut off one head from it two more grows in its place: stop one war and another two sprung up in its place- that is why we should not sort to using war or conflict as the means of solving our differences. In the last sixty years, more than two hundred (200) wars and conflicts has been fought around the globe and it has accomplished nothing but relative peace, not a permanent one- look at Ukraine- it is now on the verge of laying in ruins, all its economic and infrastructural developments has almost been wiped out and we are just six months into the war- what a shame. The Chinese Civil War, the Northern Ireland Conflict, the Cuban Revolution, the sand war, the Iran- Iraq war, the Dominican civil war, the Cuban Invasion of Panama, the 1953 East Germany Uprising, the Nigerian Civil, the 1986 U.S. Bombing of Libya, the Greece Civil War, Vietnam’s War, the Costa Rican Civil war, the Indo-Pakistan war of 1965, etc. all this are examples of wars that were fought post World War II.
For a country to win a war or fight one, in this century it will need allies and arms the latter could only be found in industrializes countries while the best choice for the former is either the Unites States America (U.S.A) or The Soviet Union (Russia,) these two countries have never miss an opportunity to go to war- if every country is signing up as their allies then they have no choice but to come to their recuse just like Russia was in Syrian during the Arab uprising and like the USA is in Ukraine right now since Russia’s invasion of the country(believe it or not by paying for the war the U.S. is in it.) These two countries that have emerged as superpowers out of the ashes of the Second World War after dismantling the German industries and hauling them away- were once allies during the Second World War- funny right? This shows that all good things indeed really come to an end. From allies to enemies what went wrong that made relationship between these two superpowers deteriorate until it has become what is now known as the “cold war” seemly named so because it was not an outright war between the two countries but more of an operation that involved surveillance, intelligence gathering, political subversion and proxy wars meant to annihilate each other and the rest of world alongside them. Post-Second World War Europe became divided into the United State led Western Bloc and the Soviet Union-led Eastern Bloc, but gradually alliances within these two blocs shifted, with some nations trying to stay out of the Cold War by joining the Non-Aligned Movement. The organization was founded in 1961 to scrub the negative effect of the cold war between the west and east- it was the cold war that encouraged the nuclear arms race between the two superpowers; part of the reason that the Cold War has never became a hot one was that the Soviet Union and the United States had nuclear deterrents against each other, leading to a mutually assured destructive standoff {Wkipedia.com}.
It was generally believed that the days of war tanks rolling down the streets of any sovereign state in Europe is long gone, this view is held by even some of leaders of the world like Prime Minster Boris Johnson, of England- though that was before the revolting action of those in the Kremlin happened. We’re in the 21st century yet we are not so optimistic that war will end in Europe- despite what the continent is trying to evolve into- an amalgamation of all or some of the sovereign states in the continent called the European Union just like some of the sovereign states in the North American Continent united into a single entity called the United States of America. If most of the sovereign states in Europe succeed in forming a bigger union than that of the USA then they will be the most industrialist country in the world- may God help us, having two giants countries on earth will be like having two Matriarch elephant in the same herd, and when to two giant elephants fight it will always be the grasses that surfers most- in this case the smaller countries that are relying on the two giant countries for food, arms, and energy
Europe is now awaking to the chilling truth that there is no stopping war on the continent in this century except if it is by some act of providence. The general attitude among most of the leaders of the world is that since we are not yet equipped to solve the problem of wars and conflict, we should move on to making our economy better, and maybe in doing so it may provide us with the right tool to deal with war, but after the February 2022 invasion and the blitzkrieg of most of Ukraine cities by Putin, there is disillusionment among Russia’s neighbors. To them, Putin’s plot is a wakeup call to take inventory of their weapons and to grease their allies so that they won’t squeak when war is on their doorsteps and for those countries that thought they have no need for allies. I think they just figured out that they are seating docks. Countries like Sweden and Finland that wanted to stay out of the cold war suddenly found themselves wondering this could have been us- Putin is ransacking right now- so their first move was to stop seating on the fence when they realized that the cold war has just turned into a hot war and their second move was to acquiring more allies- they are both signup with The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) - which some of them loathing joining after the end of the Second World War. Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States are the nations that founded NATO. The United Kingdom, France, and the USA are the Nuclear Power nations in the organization. NATO was established on 4 April 1949 to daunt the Soviet Union's aggression as the west considered it, now NATO is arguable the new rising threat post world war II to Russian leaders. As of 1 January 2022, NATO is made up of a coalition of 30 countries which are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. As of June 2022, five more countries have formally informed NATO of their intention to join it; these countries are Bosnia, Herzegovina, Finland, Georgia, Sweden, and even Ukraine.
Ukraine has put up an admirable resistance despite Putin’s aircraft blitzing their cities as one commentator put it “small Ukraine has put up a heck of a fight against Russia it has send the red’s army running back across the border with its tails between its legs and Russian’s navy reputation is now laying at the bottom of the black sea with its ships.” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelesnsky’s plea for help was answered by individuals and countries around the globe, some answered the call for sentimental reasons while others because they believe their enemy’s enemy is their Friend. Russia's neighbors and some eastern and western European countries began to provide aid to Ukraine informing of both lethal and none lethal equipment despite Putin’s warning about retribution to any country that offers help to Ukraine: it looks like they are all turning deaf ear to his treat- even when he turns off Russia’s gas to some countries in Europe.
Someone in Kremlin must have torn a page out of Hitler’s book of war- the complete annexation of a big country like Ukraine is reminiscing a novel based on the Second World War. The Cold War has just turned into a hot war and judging by the number of players in the war of proxy going on now in Ukraine, history is being made post World War II. The west and its allies are ganging up on Russia, and Putin’s invasion is what is uniting them. For the first time in its history the EU is spending about 450 million on arms to be delivered to Ukraine; Germany, in a major shift- is breaking its old policy of prohibiting arms exports to conflict zone by supplying Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles from its stocks for defense against Russia; neutral Sweden and Finland are also making their historic debut by breaking their historical status of sitting on the fence- Stockholm is sending 5,000 anti-tanks weapons while Finland is sending 1,500 rocket launchers, 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 rounds of ammunition, and 70,000 servings of field rations. The United States, The United Kingdom, France, Canada, Romania, Croatia, Netherland, Denmark, Norway, the Czech Republic, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium have all provided aid to Ukraine some in Cash and arms, while others in cash only. What Changes that? The question of Putin’s invasion borders on deep moral issues to most of the leaders of the world- they could stand Putin the bully but not the Traitor- when he was amassing his troops in Belarus he assured them it was not for war, when they had treaty on gas he assured them it was a honorable one. The elephant in the room now is when will the Russia- Ukraine war stop will it end with Russia’s full retreat or with Ukraine's concession of some of its land or with the dead of Putin- the puppet master behind the invasion?
Millennials and the Changing Financial World
Calvin Hayes
Kuyuk Times
April 2022
Who are the millennials, and is their wealth in jeopardy after living through the great recession and the deep recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and now the Russian-Ukraine war that is changing the world's financial systems due to sanctions imposed on Russia?
Millennials are born around 1981-1996 (their age ranges from 41 to 26 in 2022). They're primarily Children of the Baby boomers generation and early Generation X parents: they are born around the turn of the millennium.
Millennials are known for being computer savvy (they grew up alongside technology); they are confident and have high expectations in life. They are achievement-oriented and the most ethnically and racially diverse generation. Millennials tend to stay longer at home with their parents than the previous generation despite being the largest adult cohort worldwide.
They are circa 1.8 billion millennials in the world. That is about 23% of the global population. These millennials are increasingly becoming more influential. Asia is home to the largest population of millennials. {1} In the USA, about 85.1 million millennials were estimated in 2005.{2}
There are approximately 618,000 millennial millionaires, according to WealthEngine data and a study compiled by real estate firm Coldwell Banker reveals that millennials millionaires make up around 2% of the total U.S. millionaire population. The majorities of these millennial millionaires have a net worth ranging from $1 million to $2.49 million and fall between the ages of 34 and 37.
Due to inheritances, trusts, and estate planning, there will be a steady flow of millennials getting very rich soon (they will inherit over $68 trillion from their Baby Boomer parents by the year 2030.).{3}
The Great Recession
In 2007 when some of the oldest millennials were in their mid-twenties, a financial crisis hit the globe. It was the most catastrophic economic crisis to hit the global financial institutions in almost eight decades. In its wake, most Wall Street giants were brought down to their knees, and some of the “too big to fall” financial institutions collapsed (Bear Stearns, IndyMac Bank, Lehman Brothers Et Cetra.)
In March 2008, Global investment bank Bear Stearns, a mainstay of Wall Street which had been around since 1923, failed and was picked up by JP Morgan Chase for a chicken change; IndyMac Bank, another “too big to fall” bank, also failed, becoming one of the largest banks to ever fall in the U.S., and The British bank Northern Rock Bank was nationalized.
In September 2008, Wall Street's Lehman Brothers failed too, denoting the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history and a symbol of the carnage caused by the great recession to some people. The Financial market went into free fall, and its indexes were down, recording some of the worst losses in two decades.
During this great recession, human suffering was immense, unemployment in the U.S. reached 10%, and about 3.8 million American lost their homes to foreclosure. This devastating nightmare did not confine itself to the U.S. borders alone. It was widespread. Greece defaulted on its international debt, Iceland's economy tanked, and so did Ireland's booming economy. Most countries were battling extreme unemployment at that time (Spain 56%, Italy 44%, Britain 19%, et Cetra.) Each nation's experience of this crisis was unique and complex.
This momentous global financial crisis that triggered the great recession is definitely among the worst five financial problems the world has ever experienced. It led to a loss of more than $2 trillion from the global economy. The International Monetary Fund estimated that U.S. and European larger banks lost more than $1 trillion on toxic assets and from bad loans that is between January 2007 to September 2009.
Financial experts pointed out that a series of interrelated factors were at play to enable the occurrence of this crisis. They include: first, low-interest rates (The Fed cut rates to 1% by June 2003 in the hope of boosting the economy), second low lending standards that encourage a housing bubble (Millions of people borrowed beyond their means to buy mortgages), and third high-risk ventures by banks (The Security and Exchange Commission relaxed the net capital of requirement for some banks in U. S. that free them to leverage up to 30% or 40% of their net worth.
The concatenations of these events brought the financial crisis. It started in the U.S. and spread beyond its borders to other countries to stop the total collapse of the economy; the U.S government approved a bailout during the fourth quarter of 2008. The bailout bill package's passage stabilized the stock market, which hit a bottom rock at the end of the first quarter of 2009; after that, the stock market went on the most extended rise in history.
To prevent such things from occurring again in the U.S., the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was enacted in 2010, while countries around the globe also adopted the Basel III capital and liquidity standards.
The damages caused by this financial crisis were not limited to the loss of homes, saving, high level of youth unemployment, economic contraction, the collapse of financial institutions, loss of means of livelihood, and an increase in lack of trust in financial institutions. It also increased the rate of suicides; there were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-2007). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries {4} the places most hit by the crisis.
At that time, the most older millennials were joining the Labor market (Starting their career.) One begins to wonder where they got their optimism since when they started with their back against the wall.
Covid-19 pandemic and its deep recession
More than a decade after the great recession, a pandemic broke out, leading to the current severe and deep recession that we just experienced. This pandemic I mentioned is none other than the COVID-19 pandemic. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or Coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19. It first broke out in Wuhan, Chain, in October 2019. It was then reported to World Health Organization on 30 December 2019. Covid-19 was not just a contagious disease caused by a virus; neither was it a nightmare; it was an epic devastation. It was death on the doorstep of earth. This disease spread to the earth's four corners, leading to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
In his opening speech on 11 March 2020, The Director General of the World Health Organization stated, "In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold, and the number of affected countries has tripled. There are more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, and 4,291 people have lost their lives. Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals. In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries climbs even higher. WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock, and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of it spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction. We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic. {5}"
What makes this pandemic crisis peculiar is the alarming rate of death related to it and its complex nature. There are 625,382 death, 511,415,415 confirmed cases, and 464,408,457 recovery cases {6}, and the only common trend of this pandemic is its severity and the degree of difference of its impact on different countries (many countries' economy contracted fast and deeply in 2020).
There is also a high uncertainty concerning the recovery plan since everything depends on the virus.
Covid-19 did not only bring the giants of Wall Street down on their knees. It caught all of us unaware. The health regulatory agencies and World Health Organization were also caught with their pants down so were the rest of the international communities from Timbuktu to the shores of Connecticut; we're all unprepared for this pandemic.
When this pandemic broke out, the oldest millennials were in their late thirties while the youngest were in their late teens. Authorities around the globe took measures to curtail the spread of the virus by imposing a lockdown in all their busy cities and towns, and every nation closed its borders to inflows of people and goods; streets that had never been empty for almost a century were virtually empty from New York to Paris. Schools, restaurants, banks, shops, malls, and markets were closed. The economy came to a complete standstill.
Nothing will ever be the same due to the pandemic. Public Health Social Measure (PMSM) policy where put in place to curtail the spread of the disease. The use of face masks, hand sanitizer, face guards, and social distancing became the norm.
Governments all over the globe responded swiftly with substantial policies to combat the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, yet it did not stop the severe global recession. Hardly will you meet a millennial that is not familiar with the word bailout because their whole life always seems to revolve around one form of a recession or the other, and the fantastic thing is that they are hardly also the cause of it but instead seems to be the victims of circumstances beyond them. No wonder they are characterized as unique. The most staggering example of a government bailout has been in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which some belief is doomed to fail and gave their reason: Why a $4 trillion bailout couldn't revive the American economy. An avalanche of U.S. grants and loans helped the wealthy and companies that laid off workers. Individuals received about one-fifth of the aid. {7}
In Nigeria, the Central Bank announced an N1.1tn intervention fund to support critical sectors of the economy directed to the local manufacturing sector and boost import substitution. A balance of N100bn was used to support the health authorities to ensure laboratories, researchers, and innovators work with global scientists to patent and produce vaccines and test kits in Nigeria. The Central Bank also has a finance facility targeting households and SMEs to be channeled through microfinance banks (size of N50 billion.)
The central bank explicitly grants regulatory forbearance to banks that undertake loan restructurings (tenor/terms) of households and firms impacted by Covid-19 including in the oil & gas (27% of outstanding loan portfolio) and manufacturing (16%) sectors.{8} When last year's Annual Economic Report (AER) went to press, uncertainty still reigned: what would happen next? There was hardly any precedent to serve as a benchmark. No recent pandemic was remote as damaging as the current one. And the Spanish flu outbreak was too distant and too different. Many central banks suspended publishing forecasts, turning to tentative scenarios instead. {9}
Experience from previous recessions suggests that the productivity channel could be essential, as these recessions have been followed by persistent losses to total factor productivity (TFP.)
Despite higher-than-usual growth as the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 shock, world output is still anticipated to be about 3 percent lower in 2024 than pre-pandemic projections suggested.{10}
In 2016, research from the Resolution Foundation found millennials in the United Kingdom earned £8,000 less in their 20s than Generation X, describing millennials as "on course to become the first generation to earn less than the one before" {11}
Life for millennials is a wild card when it comes to the events that have been trying to shape their financial future. It is said ''that life is what happens to you when you're busy making plans.''
The dust from the Crisis of the covid-19 pandemic has not yet even settled when another life-changing event has rear its ugly head up. It is also deathly and catastrophic and bears the surname of Crisis; it just happens to be caused by an unnatural thing that does not involve a pandemic again. When the trumpet of war is blown, the youths dread the sound; now, millennials are the youth.
Russian- Ukraine
On February 24th, 2022, Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I guess it will not be naïve to assume that the two nations' millennials are the majority of the boots on the ground. What is the economic importance of both countries at war, and what is at stake?
The answer is simple gas and food. Due to this war, the price of gas and food has soared around the globe. Once inflation reaches double-digits, it starts having adverse coordination effects on the economy of most country- this requires constant re-adjustments of prices and wages to stay in sync and one step ahead of recession this is another blow to millennials' financial stability.
1Available at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/millennials-world-regional-breakdown/ Accessed April 2022
2Available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennials#In_the_United_States Accessed April 2022
3 Available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/10/26/millennials-will-become-richest-generation-in-american-history-as-baby-boomers-transfer-over-their-wealth/ Accessed April 2022
4 Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3776046/ Accessed April 2022
5 Available at https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 Accessed April 2022
6 Available at worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Accessed April 2022. Accessed April 2022
7available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/coronavirus-bailout-spending/ Accessed April 2022
8 Available at https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2020/FPRD/CBN%20POLICY%20MEASURES%20IN%20RESPONSE%20TO%20COVID-19%20OUTBREAK%20AND%20SPILLOVERS.pdf Accessed April 2022
9 Barnet et al., ‘After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage, IMF working paper Wp̸ 2 ̸203’ July 2021, P.3
10ibid. p3
11 Available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennials#In_the_United_States Accessed April 2022